NBA MVP Race 2026-27: Favorites and Odds

For the first time in years, the October MVP favorite isn't the reigning winner. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off back-to-back MVPs, but the market has put Victor Wembanyama ahead of him. And lurking between them are a Nikola Jokić who just averaged another triple-double and a Luka Dončić who now has the Lakers all to himself.

Current MVP Odds

Sportsbooks. BetMGM has Wembanyama as the favorite at +200 (33.3% implied) in its October 9 update. Here were FanDuel's opening odds (June 15):

| Player | Team | Opening Odds (FanDuel) |

|---|---|---|

| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | +200 |

| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | +330 |

| Nikola Jokić | Nuggets | +500 |

| Luka Dončić | Lakers | +650 |

| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Heat* | +1600 |

| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | +2000 |

| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | +2200 |

| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | +2700 |

| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | +3500 |

*Giannis was traded to Miami on June 22, one week after those odds opened.

Prediction market (Kalshi, October 12): Wembanyama 32%, Gilgeous-Alexander 16%, Dončić 15%, Jokić 12%, Edwards 7.5% and Giannis 7%.

The Big Four

Victor Wembanyama (Spurs)

Why he can win: he averaged 25 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 3.1 blocks. He was the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year in history, finished third in MVP voting and led San Antonio to the Finals. If the Spurs are battling for the No. 1 seed in the West, the narrative will be almost unstoppable.

The big "but": he played only 64 games (1,866 minutes), compared with more than 2,250 for SGA and Jokić. With the NBA's 65-game minimum for major award eligibility, availability is decisive. On top of that, the Spurs have already given him scheduled rest in the preseason.

Verdict: he's the most likely winner, but at +200 there's little margin. His price requires him to play 70 or more games and San Antonio to be near the top.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)

Why he can win: the reigning two-time MVP (2025 and 2026) and also Clutch Player of the Year, with 96 of 100 first-place votes. He averaged 31.1 points, second in the league, and has a record streak still alive of 140 straight regular-season games with at least 20 points. He plays for the team that won the most games (64-18).

The challenge: only three players have won three straight MVPs (Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird). Voter fatigue is real. OKC also lost depth over the summer, so SGA could carry a heavier load, although that could also pad his numbers.

Verdict: several analysts see him as the best price-to-probability value among the favorites. He's still the gold standard for consistency.

Nikola Jokić (Nuggets)

Why he can win: he averaged 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds and 10.7 assists, leading the league in rebounds and assists. It was his second straight season averaging a triple-double. He finished second in the 2026 voting with 634 points and is chasing his fourth MVP.

The challenge: averaging a triple-double is no longer enough on its own, because voters also reward team standing. Denver needs to be among the top teams in the West.

Verdict: his floor in the voting is the highest in the league. At 5/1, he always deserves a look.

Luka Dončić (Lakers)

Why he can win: he was the 2025-26 scoring leader (33.5 points), finished fourth in the voting, and now, without LeBron, the Lakers are entirely his team. In his first preseason game, he dropped 21 points before halftime in a 125-101 win over Sacramento.

The challenge: a team with nine new faces and a brutal West. To win, Luka needs the Lakers to finish in the top three.

Verdict: on Kalshi he's priced almost even with SGA, while at traditional sportsbooks he opened at +650. It's worth comparing prices.

Contenders to Watch

Giannis Antetokounmpo (Heat)

A two-time MVP with a new team. If Miami climbs in the East, the "South Beach rebirth" story will draw voters in. In his preseason debut, he dished out 7 assists in 14 minutes.

Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves)

With LaMelo Ball at his side, Minnesota has the flashiest backcourt in the league. Edwards scored 26 points in 25 minutes in the 122-104 preseason win at Madison Square Garden.

Cade Cunningham (Pistons)

Fifth in the 2026 voting, with two first-place votes, after leading Detroit to 60 wins. If the Pistons match that record, he'll be back in the conversation. He still has no second creator next to him, which inflates his volume.

Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brunson

Tatum returns healthy and as Boston's undisputed leader after Brown's departure. Brunson is the reigning Finals MVP. Both have long odds, but not impossible ones.

Keys to Betting the MVP

1. Availability first. The 65-game minimum knocks out candidates every year. Any long-term injury shakes up the entire board.

2. Team record matters. Recent winners have almost always played for teams near the top of their conference.

3. The market moves at two points: on preseason injury news and in the first few weeks of the season. Getting in early can get you a better price, but with more risk.

4. Consider alternative markets. Some sportsbooks offer "top 3" or "finalist" markets, with less variance than the outright winner.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is the favorite for the 2026-27 NBA MVP?

Victor Wembanyama, at +200 on BetMGM (October 9, 2026) and at 32% on Kalshi (October 12).

Who won the 2025-26 MVP?

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, for the second straight year, with 939 points and 83 first-place votes.

How many games do you have to play to be eligible for MVP?

The NBA requires a minimum of 65 games to be eligible for the major individual awards.

Can SGA win three straight MVPs?

Yes, although only Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird have done it.

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