Champions League Best Bets: Matchday 2 Picks (Oct 14)

Wednesday, October 14, finishes off Champions League Matchday 2 with a stacked slate, headlined by Manchester City vs. PSG and Real Madrid's trip to Rome. We've gone through six of the night's games, with a pick and a confidence rating for each, based on current form, team news and the 1X2 prices on the board.

Kickoff times (ET): LASK vs. Liverpool at 12:45 p.m.; the other five at 3:00 p.m.

Quick picks

• LASK vs. Liverpool: Odds (1 / X / 2) 8.40 / 6.00 / 1.31; Pick Liverpool to win; Confidence 4/5
• Aston Villa vs. Fenerbahçe: Odds (1 / X / 2) 1.61 / 4.40 / 5.00; Pick Aston Villa to win; Confidence 3/5
• AS Roma vs. Real Madrid: Odds (1 / X / 2) 3.55 / 4.00 / 1.93; Pick Real Madrid to win; Confidence 3/5
• Real Betis vs. Porto: Odds (1 / X / 2) 2.03 / 3.75 / 3.45; Pick Real Betis to win; Confidence 2.5/5
• Bodø/Glimt vs. Dortmund: Odds (1 / X / 2) 3.05 / 4.10 / 2.09; Pick Bodø/Glimt or draw (1X); Confidence 2.5/5
• Man City vs. PSG: Odds (1 / X / 2) 2.13 / 3.95 / 3.05; Pick Man City to win; Confidence 2/5

Confidence is our judgment on a 1-5 scale. It isn't a probability, and it isn't a guarantee.

LASK vs. Liverpool — Pick: Liverpool (1.31)

LASK are winless in four competitive games, most recently a 2-0 home loss to Rapid Wien, and have never beaten an English club. Liverpool are without Cody Gakpo, Alexander Isak and Dominik Szoboszlai, and Andoni Iraola is expected to rotate. Still, the Reds beat LASK 3-1 and 4-0 in the 2023-24 Europa League and have never lost a competitive game in Austria.

The result is the safest call on the card. The price is the problem: 1.31 implies about a 76% chance. Use it as a parlay anchor rather than a stand-alone bet. Prediction: LASK 1-3 Liverpool.

Aston Villa vs. Fenerbahçe — Pick: Aston Villa (1.61)

Villa are 15th in the Premier League and still looking for their first home win of 2026-27. In Europe, though, they're unbeaten in 13 home games and have won the last 10. Fenerbahçe are in great domestic form (fourth in the Süper Lig and the league's top scorers), but they're winless in eight Champions League games and have trailed at halftime in eight of their last 10. Villa have also won all three previous meetings. Watch Vedat Muriqi and Mason Greenwood, who have 13 goals between them. Prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Fenerbahçe.

AS Roma vs. Real Madrid — Pick: Real Madrid (1.93)

José Mourinho returns to Roma with a Madrid side that has looked shaky at times. They lost to Betis and Atlético in La Liga and needed a 1-0 win over Villarreal to steady things. Roma are unbeaten in Serie A and third in the table, but first-choice goalkeeper Mile Svilar is out and Pierluigi Gollini starts. Madrid have won 20 of their last 22 games against Italian clubs and the last four meetings with Roma without conceding. Kylian Mbappé is set for his 100th Champions League appearance. Prediction: Roma 1-2 Real Madrid.

Real Betis vs. Porto — Pick: Real Betis (2.03)

Both teams are in form. Betis are third in La Liga, perfect at home this season (4-0) and won 3-2 at Lille on Matchday 1. Porto lead the Primeira Liga by five points and have won three straight, including against Benfica. The difference is at the back: Porto are without suspended Jan Bednarek and injured Zaidu Sanusi, and they've won just once in their last eight UEFA games in Spain. Both teams scoring looks likely. Prediction: Real Betis 2-1 Porto.

Bodø/Glimt vs. Dortmund — Pick: Bodø/Glimt or draw (double chance)

This is our value play of the night. Bodø/Glimt are last in the league phase after a 5-0 loss at Bayern, but at home on Aspmyra's artificial turf they've won seven straight, scoring 21 goals. Last season they beat Manchester City, Inter and Sporting there. Dortmund blew a 2-0 lead against Werder Bremen on Friday, and according to the Bundesliga's official live blog, Nico Schlotterbeck stayed home with an ankle issue. The two drew 2-2 in Dortmund last season. Based on the 1X2 prices, the fair double-chance price is roughly 1.84 before the margin, so shop around. If you prefer a straight bet, a small stake on the draw at 4.10 is our alternative. Prediction: Bodø/Glimt 2-2 Dortmund.

Manchester City vs. PSG — Pick: Man City (2.13)

City are eight for eight under Enzo Maresca, are coming off a 3-0 win at Anfield and have no injuries, with Phil Foden back from a domestic ban. PSG, the two-time defending champions, have won three straight in Ligue 1 and are unbeaten in 11 UEFA games against English clubs. Their record at the Etihad is poor, though: no wins in four visits. This is our lowest-confidence pick. It's a lean, not a hammer. Expect Erling Haaland vs. Ousmane Dembélé (who has scored in five straight Champions League appearances) to decide it. Prediction: Manchester City 2-1 PSG.

How we'd play the card

• Strongest result call: Liverpool, but at 1.31 it works best in a parlay.
• Best straight-bet value: Bodø/Glimt double chance.
• Medium-confidence singles: Aston Villa and Real Madrid.
• Small-stake leans: Real Betis and Man City.

Flat staking (the same small percentage of your bankroll on each pick) is the simplest way to survive a night where a couple of favorites slip. Our bankroll guide walks through it, and Saint Stats has deeper numbers on every club. Full previews for each game are on our predictions page, and membership puts all of our Champions League coverage in one place.

FAQ

What time do Wednesday's Champions League games start?

LASK vs. Liverpool kicks off at 12:45 p.m. ET. Roma vs. Real Madrid, Aston Villa vs. Fenerbahçe, Bodø/Glimt vs. Dortmund, Man City vs. PSG and Real Betis vs. Porto all start at 3:00 p.m. ET.

Which is the safest pick?

Liverpool to win at LASK is the most likely result, but the 1.31 price offers little value.

What does the confidence rating mean?

It's our 1-5 judgment of how strongly we hold each pick. It's not a win probability.

Where can I watch in the U.S.?

Champions League games stream on Paramount+ in the U.S. Check your provider for Spanish-language coverage.

Bet responsibly

Sports betting should be entertainment, not a way to make money or recover losses. Set a budget before the first kickoff, never bet more than you can afford to lose, and don't chase losses on a busy night like this. Every pick here is an opinion, not a guarantee. If gambling stops being fun, take a break and reach out for help. In the U.S., call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. You must be of legal age in your jurisdiction to place a wager.